Posted by Leonard Steinberg on June 25th, 2014

While new-home sales soared in May, the reality is the gains simply put the market back on track to match 2013’s overall pace, rather than signaling a significant momentum gain. This points to the dangers of monitoring the market moment-by-moment. Real market trends can only be seen over a more extended period of time. What still shocks me is how the data about May sales is released over three weeks after the fact…..this lag is painfully slow and needs to be addressed.

The May increase is a delayed rebound to normal sales levels after a weak start to the spring selling season, which featured awful weather and a somewhat anemic economic recovery. It will take at least one or two more months of strong gains to prove that the housing recovery has gained steam.

The U.S. Commerce Department reported Tuesday that contracts to sell newly built homes in May amounted to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 504,000, up 18.6% from the rate in April, and up 16.9% from the May 2013 pace. The Northeast gains soared over 50%!

Last month in a USA TODAY survey of leading economists, 54% said they were more pessimistic about housing’s recovery than they were in December. Does this month change their opinion?

I am ceaselessly amazed at how poorly and slowly the real estate industry collects, sorts and analyzes data. Jonathan Miller is an exception. Change is a-coming!