Great real estate market insights

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New York is blanketed in snow this morning. Everyone this week sought direction in this turbulent opening of 2016. The Dow is in correction territory. I thought these were some insightful quotes from today’s Barron’s interview with Phil Mc Andrews, chief investment officer for $90 billion TIAA-CREF:

“The power of real estate is its durability.”

“We are in a mature phase of the cycle. True and acknowledged. But right now, we don’t have signs that real estate fundamentals are out of alignment. In the U.S, there isn’t an oversupply in our sectors: office, industrial, retail, or apartments. Net operating income, an indicator of the sector’s health, is growing.”

“Assuming no other major shifts in the economy, real estate has the ability to take a punch because fundamentals are in good shape and income prospects are also good, which should allow values to hold up.”

“The correction in the global stock markets will be meaningful for commercial real estate if it is indicative of a sharp decline in risk appetite.”

“We see real estate as the first alternative (to equities). It offers diversification from stocks and bonds and also provides a certain amount of protection against inflation due to a rental-income stream that is adjusted upward, often with escalation clauses in leases based on the consumer price index. While never immune, the sector is well prepared to tolerate a surprise from the economy. It is currently positioned similarly to the period before the 2001 recession, which created minor property-value declines that were completely offset by property income return. If a recession were to occur this year, we expect that the balanced fundamentals in U.S. property would cushion the sector in a fashion similar to 2001.”

“Millennials like the idea of being close to where they work, live, and socialize. There’s a perception that this work-live-play feature is only applicable in major urban areas, but it is also happening in middle America. There are hipster areas in Cincinnati, Columbus, and San Antonio. The perception that millennial means urban and coastal is valid but not exclusive.”

“Real estate can generate 4% to 7% in income, compared with a dividend yield on stocks of 2.4%. That’s not so bad. Institutional investors enjoy cash-rich, dividend-like returns. Apartments will give them that.”

“We are looking for areas that have dynamism, strong population growth, nice employment levels, and areas where competitors can’t build complexes nearby so we have exclusive access to renters. We like high-rise residential a lot in urban areas, like New York.”